How do you confront job loss after 50?

This article was published in December 2013 issue of The Global Analyst

The world has become a shaky place – thanks to 2008 global financial crisis. Though the origin of the crisis is the USA, the collateral damage is felt all over the world leading to slower growth, lower investment, higher inflation, and higher unemployment.

Since the center of the problem was leverage (borrowing), companies resorted to wide scale restructuring to optimize their business functions and bring some order to their balance sheets. The effects of such a strategic backdrop is hiving off some business lines, selling non-core assets, reducing headcounts and rejigging the business model to prepare for a “new normal” world that is expected to produce lower growth than the past.

Hence, despite no fault of one, we may simply lose our job. However such job losses can be easily coped with if we are in the mid-twenties or thirties. The simple logic is organization structure is simply a pyramid with more people employed in the bottom of the pyramid than the top. Therefore there are more opportunities at the junior and middle level than the senior level.  Hence, job loss becomes extremely difficult to cope if you are 50+; since you will invariably be in a senior position which is where most of the optimization happens.  

Some of the immediate reaction to a job loss includes one or more of the following:

·         Beefing up your CV

·         Reaching out to friends and acquaintances

·         Reaching out to placement consultants

·         Getting active with job sites

·         Monitoring newspapers for vacancies

In my observation, I find these measures ineffective since they are more of a “reactive” response than a “proactive” response. In other words, we do all of the above post job loss or while we are serving the notice period and not before. When things go fine, we assume that it will be fine for an infinite period of time and hence the lethargy to take some proactive actions. However, corporate failures can be swift and unanticipated. What may seem like a multinational (Enron) can quickly be flamed to dust in no time due to myriad reasons.

I feel that if you have crossed 50, looking for a replacement job may actually produce sub optimal results especially if you have spent long time in your previous job. This is due to the change in the business environment that we operate in. As a response to cost management, companies resort to intelligent out sourcing of many of their non-core, and to an extent core, functions. For e.g., instead of having a 10-member HR team, the function can simply be outsourced to an HR consultant and operate the function at the cost of 2-3 members instead of 10 members. Also, in a competitive environment, companies expect more from less. Hence, it may expect existing employees to increase their contribution thereby avoiding new recruits. Such compression reduces the need to hire especially at the senior level.

Given this trend to cost effectively outsource functions/tasks/operations, it may be a good idea to flip the coin and be on the other side of the spectrum in order to convert a threat into an opportunity.

In other words, be that provider of service which will help companies optimize cost and add value. With such a paradigm, following options emerge:

1.       Consulting on a “Result” basis: It is quite tempting to start a consulting outfit (mostly with your initials as the name!) and go around shopping for assignments. To me it is the least differentiator (since there are many consultants around already) and is a sure recipe for disaster. Instead, you may want to start thinking about “ideas” that can bring about cost efficiency and profitability improvements for a sector/sectors in which you have prior experience and familiarity. Propose that idea for implementation to key players in that sector whereby compensation for your service is directly linked to the “result” rather than your time. When you flip the proposition to “result” rather than “time”, it will be music to the ears of the decision-maker sitting on the other side of the table. Often times, implementation of such ideas should normally be a group work than a standalone assignment. It may not harm to enlist other “co-workers” that can provide support to critical legs of the idea and offer that as part of the solution to improve conviction. As a consultant proposing the idea, we should be able to see the big as well as the small picture of the steps proposed.  Let us consider an example. Hospitality is a booming industry in emerging markets. However, there is a great disconnect between clients (holidayers) and service offerings due to lack of information. Most of the times, clients feel that they could have landed with a better option after signing in on the current option. This results in misplaced expectations and lack of repeat business. A business idea that carefully captures the entire value chain of a “holiday experience” of a client, and link that successfully to a business model that will produce enhanced level of satisfaction can improve the business significantly. This may require dealing with several stakeholders including travel agents, airlines, hotels, car rentals, etc. since the client (user) may need help in the entire “value chain”. Several such ideas can be debated, and structured to make a meaningful impact for the organizations. Having said this, it must also be warned that consulting may not necessarily always take off especially if it is your first experience, and you have always been on the cushy side of giving out assignments rather than receiving them.

2.       “Take it to the next level”: Not all ideas can hit the bull’s eye. As we implement, we may encounter various impediments necessitating mid-course correction. However, after a while, the idea gets perfected and is ready for commercialization on an even grander scale. This requires different skills set thinking in terms of a businessmen setting up a business. With clients already on a roll, try creating a business plan that will involve setting up an organization to handle the same idea on a larger scale with better technology and service parameters. This is how great companies were born and more importantly grew.

3.       Expand your “network” to offer ideas: Most of the time our motive to be part of a network is to receive help rather than provide them. Alternatively, create a network comprising of like-minded people that will be interested to hear ideas from you and relate that to what they are doing. In the process, the “engagement coefficient” will dramatically improve providing more opportunities in the process. LinkedIn and Facebook provide ideal platform for such ambitions.

4.       Engage in teaching or training: There is no other better way to synthesize your thoughts other than narrating your experience. Teaching provides an ideal platform for articulating and perfecting your ideas. It sharpens your skills in many ways since it requires meticulous planning, preparation and most of the time revisit to basics. All this helps in your business engagement when you engage in idea selling. Additionally, if your teaching can focus on training, it can also bring you in contact with corporate executives who may then become the key source of your business.

5.       Have effective “fill-ins”:  A day job does not provide the needed incentive to engage in other activities in which you have deep interest. This is mainly because your time has already been sold and you will just be content with monetizing your time through your job contract. On the other hand, when you are on your own, you will have plenty of spare time, especially during the initial phases. Ineffective way of using this spare time can actually have a critical impact on your motivational level. Most of the people struggle with this aspect when they are in the transition. This is due to lack of proper “fill-inns”. Fill-inns are those that can engage your time in a productive manner with the result being either money or immense satisfaction or both. Some examples of fill-inns could be stock market trading, commodity trading, engaging in your passion (music, art, collectibles), community service, religious service, shaping young minds, etc. A systematic approach to engaging with the fill-inns can provide not only money but very high satisfaction and can in turn shape your main ambition very nicely.

In conclusion, on the one hand global situation will result in tight job market. Traditional method of having a smooth successful career with retirement at 60 may already be changing. On the other hand, companies are grappling with a new paradigm that requires services to be outsourced effectively and efficiently. Connecting the dots will convert a threat into an opportunity. Also, in today’s times where human longevity has increased, it is possible to be quite active till 70. This necessitates physical fitness and mental agility. While age may tell on your body, staying young in mind can produce miracles especially if you have to work with teams comprised of young people.

I always believe that money does not cause success. It is the success that produces money. In order to be successful, the last ingredient we need is money. Hence, having sufficient savings and capital is not a prerequisite to implement any of the above. The essential ingredients that we need are ideas, confidence, clarity, purpose, goal orientation and more importantly ability to dream. None of them need money as the source.

And as a final thought, job loss is not the end of the world. Sometimes it can be a blessing in disguise for personalities that refuses to lift their head from their work little realizing that their family has nothing else but to look to him/her to spend quality time. Grab the opportunity to fulfill that part of your responsibility too.

Happy living!

Can Vishy Anand make it again ever?

Much as I was disappointed with Vishy Anand not retaining the world championship, I felt better when I  chanced upon an article in Hindustan Times that contained a nice table about the details of the former world champions. A slight rearrangement of that table provides fabulous insights. During the last 128 years (since 1886), only 20 geniuses managed to win the championship. In other words, it is a small tight club with high entry barriers. Champions in the past have reigned for many years before they let the crown fall from their heads. On top of the table is Emmauel Lasker who reigned for 27 years in a row without any interruptions. This was followed by Alexander Alekhine with 17 years of reign, though not unbroken. He had a small 2 year break in between. Then a more familiar name emerges; Anatoly Karpov from Russia, who reigned for 16 years with an 8 year break in between. Another genius Mikhail Botvinnik reigned for 13 years from 1948 to 1963, with 2 intermittent breaks. Next in line were three people who reigned for 8 years each. Our very own Vishy Anand, Wilhelm Steinitz and Garry Kasporov achieved this feat in 3 different centuries!

The record book then shows several champions reigning for continuous periods of 6,3,2, and 1 year(s) but none of them could manage a comeback, including the magical Robert Fischer. As I see it, the ability to come back and clinch the title again is very rare and was noticed only among three people in the yester years. In recent times, Vishy Anand is the solitary champion who won back the mantle after a 5-year hiatus from 2002 to 2007.

The question then is, after this recent loss, will Anand just fade away like the 15 other champions or will he mount another successful campaign to take back the crown. The odds are clearly against him in terms of statistics. But isn’t Anand born to defy odds?

PS: Congratulations to Carlsen on his virgin entry into this exclusive club of champions. 

CHAMPIONS	REIGNED FOR..	REIGN	COUNTRY
Emmanuel Lasker	27	1894-1921	Germany
Alexander Alekhine	17	1927-35, 1937-46	Russia, France
Anatoly Karpov	16	1975-85, 1993-99	Soviet Union (Russia)
Mikhail Botvinnik	13	1948-57, 1958-60, 1961-63	Soviet Union (Russia)
Wilhelm Steinitz	8	1886-94	Austria, Hungary, England, USA
Garry Kasparov	8	1985-93	Soviet Union (Russia)
Viswanathan Anand	8	2000-02, 2007-13	India
Jose Raul Capablanca	6	1921-27	Cuba
Tigran Petrosian	6	1963-69	Soviet Union (Armenia)
Boris Spassky	3	1969-72	Soviet Union (Russia)
Robert J Fischer	3	1972-75	USA
Max Euwe	2	1935-37	Netherlands
Ruslan Ponomariov	2	2002-04	Ukraine
Vassily Smyslov	1	1957-58	Soviet Union (Russia)
Mikhail Tal	1	1960-61	Soviet Union (Latvia)
Alexander Khalifman	1	1999-2000	Russia
Rustam Kasimdzhanov	1	2004-05	Uzbekistan
Veselin Topalov	1	2005-06	Bulgaria
Vladmir Kramnik	1	2006-07	Russia
Magnus Carlsen	0	2013-	Norway

SENSEX@2025

This article was published in the November edition of The Global Analyst.


It is a common question to probe as to where would the Sensex be say in 5, 10 or 20 years. Currently Sensex is trading around 20,000 levels and its historic peak was 21,206.77 achieved on January 10, 2008.

To cut a long story short, let me tell you first my findings and launch into explanation later. I expect Sensex to touch 51,000 by 2020 and circa 100,000 by 2025. 

Sensex had a modest beginning in 1978 when it was launched with a base value of 100. Granular level data is available only from 1991 in the Bombay Stock Exchange website. In the 90’s it crossed 1,000 and in the 2000’s it crossed 4,000. In its 35 year history, Sensex averaged an annualized return of 17.3% outclassing all other asset class performance. 

While the base case call for Sensex in 2025 is circa 100,000, the optimistic call could be 155,657 and pessimistic call could be 68,454. The situation such optimistic or pessimistic scenarios could unfold is explained later. The base case call of 100,000 implies an annualized performance of 13.4% between 2012 and 2025 compared to 14.14% achieved during the last 12 years.

The period between 1980 to 2000 can be classified as “lost decades” where average economic growth (measured in real GDP) was below 6% with high inflation. Even under such circumstances, Sensex performance was exemplary especially during the decade of 1981-90 where the annualized growth in Sensex was nearly 22%. The decade of 2001-2010 can be termed “golden” with economic growth averaging 7.5%, inflation benign at 6.4% and Sensex performance was nearly 18%p.a. Viewed in this context, the call of 100,000 for Sensex by 2025 implies an annualized performance of 13.4% where economic growth is expected to average 6.18% with inflation at close to 9%.

Period	CAGR of SENSEX returns	Avg Real GDP Growth (in %)	Average Inflation (consumer avg prices, %)
1981-1990	21.60%	5.59	8.88
1991-2000	14.25%	5.58	9.05
2001-2010	17.84%	7.39	6.37
2012-2025*	13.41%	6.18	8.98
*Average computed only till the year 2018 as IMF forecasts are available only till that year

The projection methodology

1.     Historical values (closing price, P/E, div yield, P/BV, earnings, book value and dividends) from 1991 to 2012 were taken from BSE website.

2.     Base case scenarios were considered based on historical averages.

3.     Ratios (P/E, P/B & dividend Yield) were projected based on their respective historical averages.

For example, P/E ratio in ensuing 4 years was considered to be average of past 4 years (2012-2009) P/E and so on.

4.     Earnings, Book Value and Dividend growth for the first 6 years were assumed to be a constant growth (average of past 6 years). Incremental projections included the subsequent historical year.

5.     In order to project future values an upside of 25% (optimistic) and downside of 25% (pessimistic) was considered for the parameters (ratios, earnings growth, div.& book value growth) under consideration.

6.     Based on the various scenarios (optimistic, base case & pessimistic) the future values were computed.

The Drivers

 There are two primary drivers and two ancillary drivers for Sensex. The main primary driver is the economic/business cycle. According to Pami Dua and Anirvan Banerji[1], the Indian business goes through peaks and troughs. Normally the duration from peak to trough is relatively much smaller compared to trough to peak. In the Indian context, the duration of peak to trough lasts for approximately one year while the duration of trough to peak lasts for 4.3 years yielding total cycle duration of 5.25 years. The path of peak to trough is marked by recession leading to curtailment of investments and therefore negatively impacts company earnings and stock price performance. The path of trough to peak is accompanied by growth leading to capital investment and will normally witness earnings expansion. Hence economic/business cycle tend to impact earnings either positively or negatively depending on the nature of the cycle.

The second most important driver for Sensex would be the earnings, through which we derive in what is most famously followed metric called P/E ratio. The P/E ratio can move higher either because of increase in market price (numerator) or because of decrease in earnings (denominator) and vice-versa. As we can decipher from the chart, the P/E for Sensex ranged from a high of 45 in 1994 to a low of 13 in 1998 with a mean of 21. Episodes of bull market will magnify the P/E and take it to over valuation levels while bear markets produces subdued P/E. The key driver to the P/E ratio is the earnings (the denominator) which has shown remarkable progress during the period since 1991. Sensex earnings have since grown from a modest 85 in 1991 to 1,133 in 2012 implying an annualized growth of 13%.

Another key stock market metric is the price to book ratio (P/B). The book value (denominator) is defined as the total net worth which includes both equity as well as accumulated reserves (the portion that is retained in the business and not distributed as dividends). Book value growth is concomitant on earnings growth. Historically the P/B ratio hit a high of 6.35 (1992) and a low of 2.3 (2002) with a mean of 3.72. The book value rose from a modest 533 in 1991 to 6,307 in 2012 implying an annualized growth of 12%.

And finally the dividend yield which is simply dividends divided by the market capitalization. Higher dividends or lower market capitalization can improve the yield and vice-versa. Business that are experience growth will be loath to increase dividends as they feel that money can be better served in the business than in the hands of investors. Mature companies tend to favor higher dividends as they find fewer opportunities to redeploy earnings. The dividend yield fluctuated from a low of 0.68 (1994) to a high of 2.14 (2002, 2003).

Factors that can influence the Scenarios

In my assessment, there are 4 key factors that will influence the performance of Sensex in the next 12 years i.e., global growth, foreign investment, inflation and credit rating. In a globalized and networked world, the performance of the global economy (especially the developed world) will have a great significance on the performance of emerging markets like India. The jury is still not out on whether global growth has stabilized. Thanks to the global financial crisis, leading multilateral agencies (like IMF and World Bank) have been continuously revising the global growth outlook on the downside. There is a predominant view that global growth has settled to a “new normal” low and high growth rates are a thing of past. India’s stock market performance is significantly dependent on whether global growth will stabilize and pick up (the optimistic case) or will falter and fail (pessimistic case).

The second factor is the foreign investment both on infrastructure investment (FDI) and portfolio investments (FII). India’s track record on this has been dismal so far especially when benchmarked with China. However, a change of guard in the government and unleashing of policies that are foreign investment friendly can produce the optimistic case. It is also possible that politics will dominate economics here and India may continue to pursue “unfriendly” foreign investment policies which will produce the pessimistic scenario.

The third factor is inflation, which is an enemy for stock market performance. The monetary policies of RBI has so far been a failure in containing inflation since the problem is understood to have emanated more from a  supply bottleneck rather than demand induced. However, persisting high inflation will be viewed very negatively by investors (read foreign) and may unleash the pessimistic scenario. However, if RBI and the government succeed in taming the inflation, then we may be in for a pleasant surprise in terms of stock market performance.

And finally, India’s sovereign credit rating is now in the last leg of investment grade. A notch below this will classify India into “junk” status and there are many reasons (high current account deficit, fiscal deficit, inflation, etc.) as to why this can happen. And if that happens, the pessimistic scenario will unfold. However, if government policies can produce credible improvement in the economic scorecard, we can even see India moving up the investment grade rating which will be music.

The final word

Equity as an asset class has always performed far better than other alternatives but with only one caveat i.e., volatility. What has been discussed and shown in this article is only the return side of the story. However, the risk that one has to take to achieve these returns is also equally significant. A simple tool to measure risk is the standard deviation but there are other equally important measures of risk as well. Equity is one asset class which will dissuade investors from holding on due to its inherent volatility. Investors that can stomach this volatility and hold on to the investment can certainly reap the benefit. However, studies have repeatedly shown that investors show scant tolerance to holding up their equity investments and make erroneous entry and exit decisions that are harmful to their performance. In other words, they time their investments mostly wrongly leading to underperformance. Technology has enabled investors to buy the market (read Sensex) through cost effective solutions in the form of exchange traded funds (ETF’s). All one has to do is to invest in the ETF and ride through the time without getting distracted. Difficult isn’t?

[1] Business Cycles in India (2006)

 The author thanks Rajesh Dheenathayalan for his assistance

MENA Financial Landscape: Needs both scale and spread

This article was published in Gulf News, AlQabbas, Arab News, Al Bayan and  Akhbar Al Khaleej

As the Middle East and North Africa looks to diversify and grow sustainable economies, Raghu Mandagolathur from CFA Society Kuwait discusses the need to broaden the scale and spread of finance in the region.

The financial landscape of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region primarily comprises three major asset classes: equities, bonds and bank assets. International Monetary Fund (IMF) data indicates that MENA financial landscape suffers from two structural problems: it is lacking in scale and skewed towards bank assets. For successful efforts on economic diversification, the MENA region should broaden its base asset classes like equities and bonds, which are better suited to longer term financing, and reduce its reliance on bank funding which can only provide short to medium-term financing

First the scale issue…

MENA GDP is estimated at $2.9 trillion (2011) and is expected to reach $4 trillion by 2018 implying an annual growth of 4.8%, far lower than 11.2% achieved between 2004 and 2011.

From a scale perspective, the value of MENA asset classes is roughly equivalent to 95% of its total annual GDP compared to the global average which is nearly 3.7 times GDP, or 370%. This gap was noticed in all asset categories but especially that of bonds where MENA’s share is equivalent to only 8% of GDP compared with 140% internationally.

Using the 2018 regional GDP forecast by IMF,  there is notmuch of a change in scale, with values only expected to improve in MENA from 95% to 105%.

From a structural point of view, lack of change will mean continued dependence on banks for funding resulting in muted growth in equity and bonds as asset classes. In such a scenario, the implied compounded annual growth rate for MENA’s equity asset class is only 7.4% for 2011-2018, compared to 17% achieved during 2002-2011. For bonds, the implied annual growth for 2001-2018 is 7% compared to 10% achieved during 2002-2011. Even bank assets growth is expected to drop from 7.5% to 5.1% for the same periods.

While the global economy is coming out of a structural economic crisis and systems are being introduced in the region to ensure transparency, investors should ideally be more focused upon making investments in equity and debt over the longer term since it yields higher returns.  Instead confidence on equity and debt is projected to wane in the region which is not a good sign.

And then the skew issue….

In terms of distribution of asset class, bank assets in MENA are dominant, constituting 63% of the total against 9% for bonds and 28% for equities. This is starkly different from the global trend where the structure is less in favour of equities and more in favour of bank assets and bonds. MENA’s continued position in favour of bank assets again points to a system which is not in a position to cater to long-term finance. This then has to be bridged by government finance or private equity.

 And finally, some suggestions…

Finance and funding in the MENA region basically requires scale and spread as explored in this article. In order to increase the scale all three main asset sources (bank assets, equities, and debt) should be developed. The development of equity market will depend on increasing the number of primary issuances, allowing foreign investors in, and modernising the exchanges along with improved regulations. The development of debt markets (both public and private) will again require rapid issuances to create a vibrant secondary market as well as developing a yield curve.

Bank funding continues to be important but it should not crowd out other avenues. Ideally, it should pave the way for other avenues of long-term capital like equity and debt. Alternatively, development banks can be formed to fill the gap for long-term finance. Such a structural change in favor of long-term sources like equity and debt will also trigger a need for qualified professionals along with the need to follow stronger ethical codes empowering regulators who will need to have wider responsibilities.